Alberta electoral boundaries · 3 November 2026
Every 2019 and 2023 voting station's count was placed inside three maps: the current 87 ridings, the 89 in the Electoral Boundaries Commission's final report of March 2026, and the 91 tabled by the Independent Advisory Panel on 2 November 2026. On the average of the four October polls, the NDP wins 45 of 87, 47 of 89 and 46 of 91. Each is a majority, with one, two and no seats to spare. On the 2023 votes alone, the UCP wins on all three maps.
The centre line is half the seats. A party whose bar crosses it has a majority. Select a map to show it below.
Each dot is one poll. The lines are a weighted average of the polls around each date; larger samples count more. Election results are marked on the axis.
In the average of recent polls the UCP is at about 46% and the NDP at about 44%. The UCP is about 7 points below its 2023 result of 52.6%. The NDP is close to its 2023 result of 44.1%.
Over the full term since 2019, the NDP led the polling average from October 2020 to January 2023, with its widest lead, about 16 points, in September 2021. The UCP moved back ahead in early 2023, a few months after Danielle Smith became premier.
Poll list compiled by Wikipedia from each pollster's release ("2023 Alberta general election" and "32nd Alberta general election" articles, retrieved 3 November 2026); the four October 2026 polls were checked against the pollsters' releases. Numbers are among decided voters.
Jason Kenney's approval fell from 61% in June 2019 to 22% in October 2021. Danielle Smith's approval stayed between 42% and 51% from December 2022 to March 2026, then fell to 39% in May 2026. Angus Reid's September 2026 release put it lower again, at about two in five Albertans, as reported by CTV News.
In Leger's October 2026 poll, 38% approved of Smith, matching her lowest in Leger's tracking, and 39% approved of Nenshi. Disapproval was 55% for Smith and 45% for Nenshi.
Angus Reid Institute, Premiers' Performance, quarterly online surveys (Alberta samples of about 400 to 600). Leger, Alberta Pulse Check, 7 October 2026, leader approval chart (Alberta adults, n=1,001). Leger first asked about Nenshi in August 2024, after he became NDP leader in June 2024.
Switch maps to see how the same votes fall inside different lines. Select a riding on the map or in the list for its numbers.
Lead is the NDP share minus the UCP share. The bars run to 20 points either way.
NDP seats. The number in brackets is the distance from that map's majority line. Each riding is counted for the party ahead inside its boundary.
On the October polls the NDP wins 42 to 47 seats, within two seats of the majority line on every map. Which side of the line it lands on depends on the poll and the map.
Both newer maps give Edmonton 21 ridings, Calgary 28, Medicine Hat 2 and the rest of Alberta 36. They differ in Lethbridge. The Commission's map has two city ridings. The panel's map has four Lethbridge ridings: one mostly in the city and three that join parts of the city to the surrounding counties. That adds two seats and raises the majority line from 45 to 46.
The Commission's Lethbridge-East is UCP by 1.0 point on 2023 votes and turns NDP on every October poll. On the panel's map, the city riding is NDP by 4.4 points and the three that reach into the counties stay UCP by 18 points or more. On Abacus's numbers the gap between the two maps is one seat, because the Commission's Edmonton-Beaumont, NDP by 1.7 points on 2023 votes, turns UCP with Abacus's Edmonton figures.
| Area | Commission's map, March 2026 | Panel's map, 2 November 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Lethbridge | Lethbridge-West NDP +10.3 Lethbridge-East UCP +1.0 | Lethbridge NDP +4.4 Lethbridge-Cardston UCP +18.2 Lethbridge-Little Bow UCP +26.0 Lethbridge-Taber-Warner UCP +49.2 |
| Banff and Canmore | Canmore-Banff NDP +23.5 | Banff-Canmore-Diamond Valley NDP +1.0, adding Black Diamond, Turner Valley and nearby Foothills County |
| South Edmonton and Beaumont | Edmonton-Beaumont NDP +1.7 | Edmonton-Nisku NDP +21.6 Beaumont moves to Leduc-Beaumont, UCP +16.4 |
| West Calgary | Calgary-Bow UCP +4.3 Calgary-North West UCP +0.7 Calgary-West-Elbow Valley UCP +16.3 | Calgary-Bow-Springbank UCP +6.5 Calgary-North West-Bearspaw UCP +1.7 Calgary-West-Springbank UCP +17.1 |
Lead on 2023 votes, in points. On 2019 votes, Canmore-Banff is NDP by 16.5 and Banff-Canmore-Diamond Valley is UCP by 7.4. The panel's three west Calgary ridings add parts of Rocky View County and are 0.8 to 2.2 points more UCP than the Commission's versions.
Four Alberta-wide polls were published in October 2026, all before the 19 October referendum. None has been published since. Leger and Abacus also report Edmonton and Calgary separately.
| Poll | Fieldwork | NDP | UCP | Edmonton NDP / UCP | Calgary NDP / UCP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leger | 2 to 4 Oct | 45% | 47% | 56 / 33 | 45 / 46 |
| Pollara | 2 to 15 Oct | 50% | 46% | not reported | not reported |
| Abacus Data | 7 to 13 Oct | 42% | 47% | 55 / 31 | 47 / 44 |
| Mainstreet | 16 Oct | 43% | 43% | not reported | not reported |
| Average | 45.0% | 45.75% | |||
| 2023 election | 29 May 2023 | 44.1% | 52.6% | 62.9 / 34.5 | 49.3 / 48.3 |
Leger, Alberta Pulse Check, 7 October 2026 (n=1,001). Abacus Data, 16 October 2026 (n=1,021). Pollara and Mainstreet as listed by alberta.io and 338Canada. 2023: Elections Alberta Statement of Vote; Edmonton and Calgary are the city ridings.
The UCP's drop since 2023 is the change that moves seats. In Edmonton both regional polls have the NDP ahead by more than 20 points. In Calgary both show the UCP down about 5 points and the NDP down about 2. That narrows the UCP lead to one point in Leger's Calgary-area numbers and widens a one-point NDP lead to three in Abacus's city numbers.
Every seat that changes hands on the October polls is in Calgary or Lethbridge, with two exceptions: Morinville-St. Albert turns NDP on the current map on Abacus and the average, and the Commission's Edmonton-Beaumont turns UCP on Abacus.
The NDP won Calgary-Shaw by 591 votes. Elections Alberta reports the count by voting method, so it can be compared with 2023.
| Calgary-Shaw | NDP | UCP | Progressive Tory | Liberal | Valid votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023, election day | 41.2% | 57.7% | 14,002 | ||
| 2026, election day | 42.4% | 47.2% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 8,507 |
| 2023, advance, special and mobile | 44.7% | 54.6% | 10,795 | ||
| 2026, advance, special and mobile | 51.5% | 38.1% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 7,491 |
| 2026 total | 46.7% | 43.0% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 15,998 |
Elections Alberta, official results, Calgary-Shaw by-election, 14 September 2026; 2023 Statement of Vote, Calgary-Shaw. Turnout was 35.9% in 2026 and 63.6% in 2023.
On election day the NDP share rose by 1.2 points. The UCP share fell by 10.5 points, and the Progressive Tory and Liberal candidates took 9.8 points between them. The NDP won on advance, special and mobile ballots, 51.5% against 42.4% on election day. Applying the full by-election change to every riding gives the NDP 55 or 56 seats on each map. That change came from a by-election with 35.9% turnout and a Progressive Tory candidate on the ballot.
Four other analyses moved the 2023 votes onto the Commission's map, and one onto the panel's map. Each gives the same seat totals as this page.
| Map, 2023 votes | This page | Other published counts |
|---|---|---|
| Current map, 87 | NDP 38, UCP 49 | Elections Alberta official result: NDP 38, UCP 49 |
| Commission map, 89 | NDP 41, UCP 48 | Blunt Objects (27 March 2026), Factsmtr (20 April 2026) and The Alberta Record (22 April 2026): NDP 41, UCP 48. CBC News (20 May 2026): UCP 48 |
| Panel map, 91 | NDP 41, UCP 50 | Blunt Objects (3 November 2026): NDP 41, UCP 50 |
The only current seat projection from the October polls, 338Canada's of 19 October, gives the UCP 44 seats and the NDP 43 on the current map. 338Canada estimates the vote at UCP 48%, NDP 43%. The simple average of the same four polls is UCP 45.75%, NDP 45.0%. Run with 338Canada's vote estimate, this page's method also gives UCP 44, NDP 43, and the same 18 NDP seats in Calgary. The difference between 338Canada's count and this page's October average comes from the vote estimate, not from how the seats are counted.
With 338Canada's vote estimate, the NDP wins 45 of 89 seats on the Commission's map, a majority with none to spare, and 44 of 91 on the panel's map, two short.
| Projection, current map | Vote estimate | Their seats | This page's method with their vote estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 338Canada, 19 October 2026 | UCP 48%, NDP 43% | NDP 43, UCP 44 | NDP 43, UCP 44 |
| Poliwave, 14 September 2026, before the October polls | UCP 48.2%, NDP 42.3% | NDP 39, UCP 48 | NDP 41, UCP 46 |
| This page, October average | UCP 45.75%, NDP 45.0% | NDP 45, UCP 42 |
In Calgary, 338Canada's riding calls match this page's at 338Canada's vote estimate except in two ridings. 338Canada has Calgary-Shaw likely NDP because it starts from the September by-election; this page starts from 2023. 338Canada calls Calgary-East a toss-up; this page has it UCP by 1.3 points.
| Panel map riding, 2023 votes | This page | Blunt Objects |
|---|---|---|
| Calgary-Acadia | UCP +0.2 | UCP +0.2 |
| Calgary-Cross | NDP +6.0 | NDP +6 |
| Edmonton-Windermere | NDP +12.4 | NDP +13 |
| Calgary-North West-Bearspaw | UCP +1.7 | UCP +3 |
| Calgary-Bow-Springbank | UCP +6.5 | UCP +4 |
| Edmonton-Nisku | NDP +21.6 | NDP +17 |
| Lethbridge | NDP +4.4 | NDP +6 |
| Lethbridge-Cardston | UCP +18.2 | UCP +23 |
| Lethbridge-Little Bow | UCP +26.0 | UCP +21 |
| Lethbridge-Taber-Warner | UCP +49.2 | UCP +43 |
| Lac Ste. Anne | UCP +37.9 | UCP +47 |
City ridings agree within about a point. Ridings that join city and rural land differ by 2 to 9 points, because there the result depends on how a voting station's votes are split between town and countryside. No riding changes winner. CBC News split votes by urban land area. This page splits them by homes in Edmonton and Calgary and by where voters lived in 2019 elsewhere. Blunt Objects does not describe its method.
No published analysis yet places the 2019 votes on either new map, and none applies the Calgary-Shaw by-election change beyond Calgary-Shaw.
Current map. Elections Alberta's electoral division boundary file (December 2017). Its seat counts use Elections Alberta's official 2019 and 2023 results for each riding. Calgary-Shaw is counted as UCP on 2023 votes, though the NDP has held it since the September 2026 by-election.
Commission's map. No boundary files were published. Each riding was traced from the maps in the Commission's final report (Appendix A): the Edmonton and Calgary maps, the five regional maps and the city insets. Spruce Grove was drawn from its written description in Appendix B. Each traced map was lined up with Elections Alberta's boundary files wherever the lines match. Checks: every riding the two newer maps share matches its published area within 1%, and all 101 towns checked sit in the riding the Commission's written descriptions give.
Panel's map. No boundary files were published. Each riding was traced from the maps in the panel's report (Appendices 6 and 8). Every Edmonton and Calgary riding matches the area in Appendix 7 within one square kilometre. Five towns sit too close to a traced line to place reliably, so each is set to the riding the panel's report gives: Peace River, Stony Plain, Devon, Black Diamond and Turner Valley.
2023. Elections Alberta reports election-day votes by voting station and lists the voting areas each station served. Each voting area was matched to the 2023 voting area boundary file. Where a voting area crosses a new line, its votes were split by the number of homes on each side in Edmonton and Calgary, from the 2026 city property assessment files. Elsewhere they were split by where voters lived in 2019, using each 2019 poll's count spread over that poll's area.
2019. Results are reported by poll, and Elections Alberta publishes the 2019 poll boundary file, so each poll was placed directly with the same rule.
Advance, special and mobile ballots are reported for the whole old riding. They were divided among the new ridings in the same proportion as each party's election-day votes from that old riding.
Checks. Each map adds up to Elections Alberta's totals: 1,764,915 valid votes in 2023 and 1,896,542 in 2019. Edmonton-Castle Downs is unchanged on all three maps; the method gives 55.7% NDP and 40.4% UCP, the official 2023 result.
Votes cast. Election-day votes are the voting-station counts. Advance votes and special and mobile ballots are reported for the whole old riding and are divided among the new ridings in the same proportion as each party's election-day votes. Alberta has no separate mail-in count; ballots by mail are special ballots. On the current map these are Elections Alberta's official counts for each riding.
Electors. The number of names on the voters list at each 2023 election-day voting station, from the Statement of Vote, placed into the new ridings the same way as the votes.
People. Statistics Canada's 2021 Census Profile for each of Alberta's 6,203 dissemination areas, the smallest census areas, usually 400 to 700 people. Each area was placed in the riding that contains it; an area crossing a line was split by land area. Adults 18 and over are estimated from the age groups, counting three-fifths of the 15 to 19 group as under 18. The 2025 population and adult estimates carry each area's 2021 count forward using Statistics Canada's July 1, 2025 population estimates for its municipality, and the 2025 share of adults in its census division. These spread a municipality's growth evenly across it, so new suburbs are understated; the population in the map report is the better figure where the two differ. Current unemployment is Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey rate for the riding's economic region, a three-month average to September 2026. Census figures describe 2021. The population in the riding's published report is newer, so the two differ, most in fast-growing areas. Income, immigration, visible minority, Indigenous identity, education, renters and unemployment come from the 25% long-form sample.
Each measure adds each party's change since 2023 to its 2023 share in every riding. Leger's change is applied by area: the Edmonton area (the city plus the St. Albert, Sherwood Park, Strathcona County, Spruce Grove, Leduc, Beaumont, Fort Saskatchewan and Sturgeon County ridings), the Calgary area (the city plus the Airdrie, Chestermere and Cochrane ridings) and the rest of Alberta. Abacus's change is applied to the City of Edmonton, the City of Calgary and the rest of Alberta. The October average and the Calgary-Shaw change are applied the same way everywhere.
A riding goes to the party ahead after the change. Local candidates and the Progressive Tory vote outside Calgary-Shaw are not modelled.
On the polling average, the NDP wins 45 of 87 seats on the current map, 47 of 89 on the Commission's map and 46 of 91 on the panel's map. On the two newer maps, one of those seats, Calgary-East, is decided by less than a tenth of a point. On Leger's and Abacus's regional numbers, the NDP falls one or two seats short on each map, except Leger on the Commission's map, which reaches the line exactly. On the 2023 votes alone, the UCP wins on all three maps.